Card counting for video blackjack is not difficult to learn. In fact, I think learning the theory of card counting is much easier than memorizing basic strategy. By the end of this section, you will know how to count cards. And you will be able to do so much more easily than a regular blackjack player because you won't have the added distractions of the other players, the dealers and the paranoid pit crews to cope with. Even video-blackjack games that deal just one round are susceptible to card counting—especially machines that allow you to play multiple hands. Thus, learning how to count cards is an important skill if you want victory at video blackjack.
The theory of card counting is quite simple: big cards favor the players, small cards favor the dealer-in-the-machine. This is a fact backed up by tens of millions of computer runs over four decades of blackjack study. Thus, as the game is progressing, if the deck contains more big cards (10s and aces) because more little cards have been played, it will be to the player's advantage. Whereas if the deck contains more little cards (twos through sixes), it will favor the dealer-in-the-machine. Of course, having a deck favor you is not the same as a guaranteed win, nor is having an unfavorable deck a guaranteed loss. However, in the long run analysis of blackjack, the player will win more hands when the decks contain high cards than he will lose, and he will lose more hands when the decks contain low cards than he will win.
Card counting systems take advantage of this fact in four ways:
1. All card counting systems keep track of the relationship of small cards to big cards in the remaining deck.
2. When the cards remaining in the deck favor the player, the player will bet larger sums of money. When the cards remaining in the deck favor the casino, the player will bet smaller amounts or the minimum amount allowed.
3. Certain changes to basic strategy are made based on the "count" that increase a player's advantage or decrease his disadvantage when playing certain hands.
4. The use of the insurance option now becomes viable at certain times, even in single-round games.
If you have decided to learn how to count cards, you have another big decision to make. What card counting system will you use? There are literally dozens of different counting systems on the market, some selling for upwards of $295. To make matters worse, most of the card counting systems are good! There are card counting systems that keep track of every card in the deck; there are systems that are four level systems—that is, cards are assigned a value of +1 to +4 (and -1 to -4); there are three- and two-level systems. Some are so difficult and so elaborate that only a genius could play them. Some are so simple that mere mortals (you and me) can play them.
You are lucky for, unlike me, you don't have to attempt to play a representative sampling of all these systems before deciding which to choose. I did. I've played three-level counts, two-level counts and one-level counts with side counts of aces and fives. They all work.
Unfortunately, for me, they all work about as well as the simplest and easiest to learn and use—a one-level count, called the Hi-Lo Count, that only follows certain cards. Recent research, and blackjack is a well-researched game, has shown that there isn't much difference in performance between a good one-level count and a good multi-level count. The only real difference is the level of difficulty in learning and executing the multi-level as opposed to the single-level counts. So why bother wasting time learning a more difficult count when its advantage over a simpler count is minuscule?
So the count we'll deal with will be the Hi-Lo.
Here are the card values in the Hi-Lo counting system.
2 = +1 7 = 0 10 =-1
3 = +1 8 = 0 ace = -1
4 = +1 9 = 0
5 = +1
6 = +1
As you are playing, if more small cards are coming out of the deck, you have what is called a positive count. If more large cards are coming out of the deck, you have what is called a negative count. After a round of play, if the count is positive, the next round should theoretically favor the player because a greater proportion of the large cards remain in the deck to be played. If the count is negative after a round of play, the next round favors the casino because a greater proportion of the small cards remain to be played.
Why do the large cards favor the player and small cards favor the house?
1. Large cards make a blackjack more likely. Although the player and the dealer-in-the-machine have an equal chance of getting a blackjack, the player is paid off at three to two in some cases. In these cases, if a player gets one blackjack in one round of play and the dealer-in-the-machine gets one blackjack in another round of play, the player comes out ahead, assuming his bets were the same in both rounds. The converse is also true. With small cards remaining in the deck, a blackjack is less likely.
2. Although the dealer-in-the-machine will get slightly better hands in a positive count (as will the player), when the dealer-in-the-machine has a bust hand (12 to 16), he is more likely to actually bust. The dealer-in-the-machine must hit his bust hands, but the player doesn't have to. In a negative count, the dealer-in-the-machine will hit his bust hand and is more likely to make a good hand because small cards are more likely to come out.
I want to reinforce what I said earlier. The fact that something is more likely to happen doesn't guarantee it will happen every time. When you count cards, you will have very high positive counts where the dealer-in-the-machine will draw to his bust hands and still get small cards. You will have negative counts where blackjacks appear—one after another. Over time, over the long run (whatever that is), what is more likely to happen will happen more often than what is less likely to happen.
Now, that you know the values of the cards, you have to hit upon a workable method for counting them. You have to keep a running count of the cards as they come out of the deck.
To become proficient, you have to put the practice in. Card counting is, as you have just seen, easy to understand, hard to actually do at first. However, once you master card counting, you never forget how to do it. Like riding a bike, counting cards and playing basic strategy can become second nature.
What should also become second nature are the variations in basic strategy required based on the count. There are literally hundreds of variations for both single and multiple-deck games. However, much like the numerous card-counting systems, memorizing hundreds of strategy variations will not yield you much value for your time. You are better off simply memorizing the few strategy variations for certain hands that occur with some regularity and in count ranges that you are more often likely to have. Thus, the following variations should be incorporated into your arsenal.
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